ASCLogo.gif (10192 bytes)

 Wise Crowd Poll Results-Chicago 

Home ] Up ] AAII NorthShore History ] [ Wise Crowd Poll Results-Chicago ] Maps ] Downloads ] AAII Photo Gallery ] Extra Good WebSites ] Investment Aphorisms ] Herb Paske [1939 - 2007] ]

           Our 28th Year of Client Service!

Chicago-AAII "Crowd Wisdom" 3/15/08 Poll results

Question #

Computed Response and Commentary

1 Home sales will rebound in September 2010 [18 months, median response].
2 78% believe we're in a recession now.
3 The probability that a major money center bank will go bankrupt or require a Federal bailout was put at 78% [median estimate].
4 The probability that at least one major money market fund will "break the buck" [have its share value drop below $1] is only 30% [median estimate].
5 79% of respondents chose Option A [guaranteed $500 win] and only 21% chose Option B [coin toss chance to win either $1000 or $0]. This strong risk-aversion response on the "win side" matches academic research results.
6 55% of respondents chose Option B [coin toss chance to lose nothing or $1000] and 45% chose Option A [certain $500 loss]. This risk-aversion response on the "losing side" contrasts with a strong preference for Option B in academic research.
7 The group thought their investment management skill was "average" [category #3 of 5] based on the median result. There was a 92% clumping at the center position... only 4% rated themselves "well below average" and 4% rated themselves "well above average."  
8 It would take a $20 win on a coin toss to make people risk a -$10 loss [based on the median answer]. A few individuals were so risk-averse they needed $100 to $1000 wins to avoid a possible $10 loss. The $20 figure exactly agrees with Nobel economist Kahnemann's experience in asking this loss-aversion question.
9 48% believe Obama will be elected next November; 39% said McCain; 13% Clinton.
10 President George W. Bush was given a median "rating" of  3  [1= worst, 10= best] as the 20-year-future perception of his tenure compared to all other Presidents.
11 President Bill Clinton was given a median "rating" of  5  [1= worst, 10= best] as the 20-year-future perception of his tenure compared to all other Presidents.
12 Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke was given a median "rating" of  5  [1= worst, 10= best] as the 20-year-future perception of his tenure.
13 Former Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan was given a median "rating" of  6  [1= worst, 10= best] as the 20-year-future perception of his tenure.
14 The median value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the last day of 2008 was estimated to be 12,200 compared to its value of approximately 12,000 on the date of the poll. [Could this be an example of anchoring on the present value?]
15 The median value for the 10-year Treasury Note yield on the last day of 2008 was estimated to be 3.5% compared to its value of 3.5% on the date of the poll. [Another anchor choice?]
16 The long-term, capital gains tax rate five years from now will be 20% [median estimate].
17 There is a 40% chance that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will DROP a further 20% from its current level before the next bull market rise. 
18 The proposition that the Federal Reserve must lower interest rates much further and quicker to get credit markets functioning effectively again rated a median  2 response, where 1= strongly DISAGREE and 5= strongly SUPPORT. So, the wise crowd "moderately DISAGREED" with this idea.
19 The U.S. will finish withdrawing at least 75% of its troops from Iraq in 2011 [median]. Some people expected much longer term involvement so the average withdrawal year was 2014.
20 Though only one in two crowd members voted their opinion on this matter, 54% of those who did vote thought some terrorist entity would detonate a nuclear bomb in the next 20 years.
21 The confidence level in the answer to question #20 was 50%... so it's a toss-up if a bomb will be detonated and also a toss-up that we can predict this.
22 A Palestinian state will be recognized by the U.N. in 2015 according to the 86% of respondents who chose a specific year for this event. The other 14% said this recognition will never happen.
23 There is a 30% probability [median] that the Chinese stock market will FALL 50% in the next two years. 
24 There is a 20% probability [median] that the Japanese stock market will RISE 50% in the next two years. 
25 83% of the wise crowd said Toronto is NOT the capital city of Canada; 17% said it was. In fact, Ottawa is the capital of Canada... but see the next question.
26 The median confidence level in the question #25 answer was 100%. But the median confidence of people who said Toronto WAS the capital was lower than 100%.
27 North and South Korea will be reunited in 2023 according to the 61% of respondents who chose a specific year for this event. The other 39% said this union will never happen.
28 The U.S. will stop using oil-based products as a heating or combustion fuel in 2050 [median].
29 Universal health care coverage in the U.S. in either a governmental or private sector format will be available in 2015 according to the 66% of respondents who chose a specific year for this event. The other 34% said this coverage will never be universal.
30 A pharmaceutical or painless procedure that completely cures one common type of cancer will first be available in 2020 according to the 74% of respondents who chose a specific year for this event. The other 26% said such a cure will never happen. Two respondents claimed we already had cured some type of cancer.
31 Here's a significant example of crowd wisdom... the number of meters in a mile were reported in the range 2.5 to 15,000... a very wide bracket around the correct answer of 1609.3 meters. However, the median answer was 1600 [just 0.6% low] and even the average of all answers was a respectable estimate of 1591 meters [just -1.1% low]. 
32 The probability that "global warming" is a real effect AND is significantly caused by human beings was rated at 70% [median]. 
 

 

Send mail to Webmaster@AmericanSuperior.ORG with questions or comments about this web site. 
PHONE: (775) 852 - 7500
American Superior Company is registered as an Investment Advisor with the Securities & Exchange Commission. We will respond to inquiries about Advisory service that originate from within the United States, but not until and unless it's determined that American Superior Company and its representatives are properly registered or exempt from registration in the inquirer's domicile state. Any securities identified or investment data included at this site, or referenced through links to other Internet sites, is for general information only and should not be construed as investment advice. Whenever historical data is presented, understand that past performance does not imply or guarantee future results. Investment in financial securities can produce profits or losses. Officers, directors and employees of American Superior Company may, from time to time, have positions in, or buy and sell, securities that are identified at this site or referenced through links to other Internet sites, but there is no intention to include such securities because of such ownership, or because of such purchases and sales. Information presented at this site is taken from generally reliable sources but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. American Superior Company has authorized publication of the content on this page.
Copyright 1999-2012 American Superior Company